When car prices start falling: expert forecasts for-

Introduction: Why do car prices remain high?

The last year has become a real test for Russian car enthusiasts: prices for new and used cars continue to break records, and hopes for their reduction are regularly postponed. According to Analytical agency "AUTOSTAT", the average cost of a new passenger car in Russia increased by 23% for 2023, and in the secondary market the increase was 18%. The reasons for this growth lie in a complex of factors: from the global shortage of microchips to local logistics problems and changes in exchange rates.

However, experts agree that the current situation cannot last forever. The only question is When exactly will the price correction begin? and how significant the reduction will be. In this article, we will analyze the key factors influencing the cost of cars, analyze forecasts for 2026-2026, and give practical recommendations to those who are planning a purchase. We will pay special attention parallel import, government support programs and the dynamics of the secondary market - these are the segments that can become the locomotives of price reductions.

5 Key Factors That Determine Car Prices

To understand when to expect a reduction in the cost of cars, you need to understand the pricing mechanisms. Here are the main drivers shaping the market today:

• 🔄 Exchange rates and inflation. More than 70% of components for assembling cars in Russia are imported, and their cost is pegged to the dollar and euro. In the fall of 2023, the ruble exchange rate weakened to 100+ RUB/USD, which automatically increased production costs.
• 🚢 Logistics costs. Sanctions restrictions have increased the time and cost of component delivery. For example, shipping containers from China now takes 30-40% longer than in 2021.
• 🛠️ Component shortage. Despite the partial recovery of supply chains, shortages of chips and some types of steel are still affecting production volumes. According to Ministry of Industry and Trade, in 2023, factories are operating at 60-70% of pre-crisis capacity.
• 📉 Supply and Demand. In 2022-2023, demand for cars increased amid uncertainty and the desire to preserve savings in hardware. This has created an artificial shortage that manufacturers and dealers use to keep prices high.
• 🏛️ Public Policy. Preferential lending programs (for example, "Family Car") and subsidized rates support demand, but at the same time allow dealers to inflate prices.

Interesting fact: according to RBC, in 2023, dealer margins on new cars increased to 12-15% (versus 5-7% in pre-crisis times). This means that even if costs stabilize, prices may remain high due to the desire of dealers to lock in excess profits.

Expert forecasts: when can we expect a price reduction?

Analytical agencies and automakers give different estimates regarding the timing of price reductions. We've summarized the key forecasts in a table:

Source	Projected price decline	Deadlines	Reasons
Agency "AUTOSTAT"	5-10% on new cars	2nd half of 2026	Stabilization of the ruble exchange rate, restoration of logistics, increase in supply in the secondary market
Raiffeisenbank	3-7% on used cars	1st quarter 2026	Expiration of ownership period for cars purchased in 2020-2021 (mass entry into the secondary market)
Ministry of Industry and Trade	Stabilization without reduction	2026	Supporting local production but maintaining high costs of imported components
Association of European Businesses (AEB)	10-15% on parallel imports	End 2026 – beginning 2026	Optimization of supply chains, increased competition among importers

The critical moment will come in the second half of 2026, when cars purchased in 2020-2021 under preferential lending programs will begin to enter the secondary market en masse. This will create excess supply and put pressure on prices of both used and new cars (due to competition). In addition, by this time logistics routes and the ruble exchange rate should stabilize.

⚠️ Attention: Do not expect a sharp collapse in prices. Most likely, we will talk about a gradual correction of 5-15% depending on the segment. The maximum reduction will affect cars economy class and models with a mileage of 3-5 years.

Parallel imports: when will they start putting pressure on prices?

One of the key factors that could accelerate price declines is the development of parallel import. According to Federal Customs Service, in 2023 more than 200 thousand cars (about 20% of total sales of new cars). However, for now, prices for parallel lines remain high due to logistics overhead and risks.

The situation may change in the second half of 2026 for the following reasons:

• 🚛 Route optimization. Importers are mastering new logistics schemes (for example, through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan), which reduces costs by 15-20%.
• 📦 Simplification of customs procedures. The government plans to introduce simplified customs clearance mechanisms for parallel vehicles, which will reduce the time and cost of clearance.
• 🔧 Service localization. Large importers (for example, "Autospecial center" and "Module") open their own service centers, which reduces the risks of owners and makes cars more attractive.
• 💰 Competition between importers. As the number of players in the market grows, prices for popular models (e.g. Toyota RAV4 or Hyundai Tucson) will begin to decline.

Experts Analytical center "AutoBusinessConsulting" predict that by the end of 2026 the difference in price between officially imported and “parallel” cars will decrease from the current 15-20% up to 5-10%. This will force official dealers to adjust their pricing policies.

Government programs: will they help reduce prices?

In 2023, the government extended a number of programs to support the car market, including:

• 👨‍👩‍👧‍👦 "Family Car" (preferential rate of 5% on loans for families with children).
• 💳 "First car" (subsidized rates up to 10% for young families).
• 🔄 "Trade-in" (discounts when trading in an old car for a new one).

However, these measures have a dual effect:

⚠️ Attention: Government subsidies support demand, but at the same time allow dealers to inflate prices. According to Central Bank, in 2023, more than 40% of transactions for the purchase of new cars were made under preferential programs, which was one of the factors for rising prices.

The following changes are expected in 2026:

1. Reducing the budget for subsidizing rates (planned reduction by 30%).
2. Tightening requirements for program participants (for example, income restrictions).
3. Introducing quotas for dealer participation (to prevent artificially inflated prices).

These measures could reduce demand for new cars and put pressure on prices, especially in the second half of 2026. However, one should not expect a complete abandonment of state support - the government will balance between stimulating the market and controlling inflation.

Secondary market: when will prices for used cars begin to collapse?

The dynamics of the secondary market is one of the key indicators that signals a future price decline. The current situation in the market is as follows:

• 📈 Supply growth. In 2023, the number of advertisements for the sale of used cars increased by 12% compared to 2022 (data Avito).
• 🕒 Increased tenure. The average period of owning a car before selling it has increased from 3.5 to 4.2 years - owners are trying to “wait out” the unfavorable period.
• 💸 High prices for young used cars. Cars that are 1-3 years old are only 15-20% cheaper than new ones, which makes their purchase unprofitable.

Experts expect that Peak supply on the secondary market will occur in the 3rd-4th quarter of 2026. This is due to the following factors:

Increase in the number of listings by 20%+ compared to the previous quarter

Increasing the average car ownership period to 4.5+ years

Reducing the gap between prices for new and used cars by up to 10%

The emergence of mass sales of cars produced in 2020-2021-->

Cars are especially likely to fall in price Korean brands (Hyundai, Kia, SsangYong), which were purchased en masse in 2020-2021 under preferential programs. Their owners will begin to get rid of cars as their loan obligations expire.

Practical recommendations: what should a buyer do in 2026?

If you are planning to buy a car in the next 1-2 years, here is an algorithm of actions that will help you save:

1. Set your priorities. Decide what is more important: new car with warranty or used car with savings of 30-40%. In 2026, it makes more sense to consider options with a range of up to 100 thousand km.
2. Monitor price dynamics. Use services Avto.ru or Drom.ruto track changes in the cost of the models you are interested in. A price drop of 5-7% over 2-3 months is a signal to buy.
3. Consider alternative purchasing channels:
   Where to look for great deals?

   • 🔹 Auctions (for example, Copart or IAAI) - you can buy a car 20-30% cheaper than the market price, but there will be costs for delivery and customs clearance.
   • 🔹 Direct sales from importers - some companies (for example, "Autospecial center") offer discounts of up to 10% for bulk purchases.
   • 🔹 Corporate parks — companies often sell cars with mileage of 50-80 thousand km at prices 15% lower than the market.