Rising car prices in: reasons, numbers and what buyers should do

2020 was a turning point for the car market not only in Russia, but throughout the world. Prices for new and used cars increased by 15–40% depending on the model and region, and some popular cars have completely disappeared from showrooms. What caused such a sharp rise in price? Should we expect prices to fall or will the situation only get worse? In this article, we will analyze all the key factors that influence the cost of a car and give practical advice to those who are planning a purchase.

Many attribute price increases solely to the COVID-19 pandemic, but in reality there are many more reasons. This includes a global shortage of microchips, currency fluctuations, changes in tax legislation, and even political sanctions. At the same time, the rise in price affected not only premium brands - budget models Lada, Renault and Kia also increased in price by 20–30% in a few months. Let's sort it out in order.

⚠️ Attention: Data on prices and tariffs in the article are based on open sources for 2020–2021. For accurate calculations, check the current tax rates, exchange rates and dealer prices on official websites or in your tax office personal account.

1. COVID-19 pandemic: how the coronavirus hit the auto industry

The spring of 2020 marked the beginning of a crisis for the global automotive industry. Due to quarantines and border closures, factories in China, Europe and the USA, the main suppliers of components, were shut down. Production of many models Toyota, Volkswagen and Hyundai paused for 2–3 months, which led to a shortage of finished cars on the market.

But the main problem was not downtime, but the breakdown of supply chains. For example, 80% of chips for cars was produced in Asia, and when plants in Taiwan and Malaysia closed, automakers were left without critical components. As a result, some models such as Ford F-150 or Nissan Rogue, were produced without some electronics - without driver assistance systems or even multimedia screens.

In Russia, the situation was aggravated by the fall of the ruble: if at the beginning of 2020 the dollar was worth 63 rubles, then by the end of the year - already 75–80 rubles. Since most foreign cars were assembled from imported parts, their price automatically increased by 15–25% only due to exchange rate differences.

• 📉 Factory downtime: Volkswagen lost 2.1 million cars, Toyota — 1.3 million due to production stoppage.
• 🚢 Logistics collapse: The cost of container transportation has increased by 5–7 times (from $1,500 to $10,000 per container).
• 💰 Currency shock: The ruble weakened by 20% to the dollar, which immediately increased prices for imported cars.

2. Shortage of microcircuits: why cars began to be sold without electronics

The most paradoxical factor in the rise in price is global semiconductor shortage. In 2020, the demand for chips increased not only in the automotive industry, but also in the production of smartphones, laptops and servers (due to the transition to remote work). At the same time, the plant capacity TSMC (Taiwan) and Samsung were limited, and automakers found themselves at the back of the line.

As a result, some models were sold without electronics part - for example, Chevrolet Silverado was supplied without a keyless entry system, and Ram 1500 - without digital dashboard. Dealers in Russia Kia and Hyundai even offered to clients add missing options laterwhen the chips become available.

The shortage lasted until 2022, and during this time car prices increased even more. For example, Toyota RAV4 in the basic configuration has increased in price from 1.8 million to 2.3 million rubles - almost on 30% per year.

Car model	Price at the beginning of 2020 (₽)	Price at the end of 2020 (₽)	Price increase
Lada Vesta	680 000	850 000	+25%
Kia Rio	950 000	1 200 000	+26%
Volkswagen Polo	1 050 000	1 350 000	+29%
Toyota Camry	2 100 000	2 600 000	+24%

⚠️ Attention: If you are offered to buy a new car without some electronics with a promise to complete it later, ask for a written commitment from the dealer indicating the timing and cost. In 2020–2021, there were cases where customers were waiting for parts by 6–12 months.

3. Changes in taxes and duties: how the state contributed to rising prices

In 2020, changes were made to tax legislation in Russia, which directly affected the cost of cars. Firstly, with January 1, 2021 new came into force luxury tax more expensive for cars 3 million rubles. The rate increased from 10% up to 20% for a car worth 5–10 million rubles and up to 30% more expensive for cars 10 million.

Secondly, they were raised recycling fees — with 20,000 to 42,000 rubles for passenger cars. This fee is included in the final price of the car, so even budget models have risen in price by 15–20 thousand rubles.

In addition, with July 1, 2020 requirements for environmental class cars. Cars below Euro 5 began to be subject to increased duties, which made their import unprofitable. As a result, many used foreign cars from Europe and Japan disappeared from the market, and prices for the remaining ones increased by 20–30%.

• 💸 Luxury tax: For cars for 5 million rubles the rate increased from 10% to 20%.
• ♻️ Disposal fee: Increased from 20,000 to 42,000 rubles for passenger cars.
• 🌍 Environmental duties: Cars below Euro 5 became more expensive 15–25%.

What is the recycling fee and why was it increased?

A recycling fee is a fee for future recycling of a vehicle after it has been written off. Its increase in 2020 was due to the need to finance programs for recycling old cars and stimulating the purchase of new, more environmentally friendly models. In fact, this fee has become a hidden tax that is included in the price of every new car.

4. Currency fluctuations: how the weakening of the ruble hit prices

One of the key factors for the rise in car prices in 2020 is sharp weakening of the Russian ruble. If in January 2020 the dollar was worth 63 rubles, then by December - already 75–80 rubles. Since most foreign cars are imported or assembled from foreign components, their price automatically increased by 15–25% only due to exchange rate differences.

Cars of premium brands have become especially expensive (Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Audi), since their value is pegged to the euro. For example, Mercedes-Benz E-Class in the basic configuration has increased in price from 3.8 million to 4.5 million rubles - almost on 20% per year.

But even budget models were not left out. Renault Duster, which is assembled in Russia, has risen in price by 180,000 rubles (with 850,000 to 1,030,000 rubles), since many parts (such as electronics and transmission) are imported from France and Romania.

⚠️ Attention: If you are planning to buy a foreign car on credit, keep in mind that if the ruble weakens, monthly payments may increase due to the link to the currency. In 2020, many borrowers saw their payments increase by 10–15% after devaluation.

Look for models with maximum localization (assembled in Russia)

Compare prices in rubles and foreign currencies from different dealers

Consider buying a used car with mileage up to 50,000 km

Apply for a loan in rubles, not in foreign currency-->

5. Used market: why used cars have become more expensive than new ones

Paradoxically, in 2020 Used cars have risen in price more than new ones. If prices for new cars increased by 15–30%, then in the secondary market the growth was 30–50% for popular models. Why did this happen?

Firstly, many potential buyers of new cars switched to the used market due to rising prices. Demand increased, but supply remained at the same level - this automatically raised the price. Secondly, due to the pandemic, people began to use public transport less often, which increased the demand for personal cars.

Thirdly, Imports of used foreign cars decreased due to border closures and stricter customs regulations. For example, in 2020, **40% fewer used cars from Japan and Europe were imported into Russia than in 2019. This led to a shortage and rising prices on the secondary market.

The biggest jumps were observed in popular crossovers and SUVs:

• 🚙 Toyota RAV4 (2018 onwards) - from 1.5 million to 2.1 million rubles (+40%).
• 🚙 Mitsubishi Outlander (2017 onwards) - from 1.2 million to 1.7 million rubles (+42%).
• 🚙 Skoda Kodiaq (2019 onwards) - from 1.8 million to 2.4 million rubles (+33%).

6. Forecasts for 2021–2022: what buyers can expect

By the end of 2020, experts gave different forecasts regarding the further development of the situation in the car market. Optimists hoped that mid 2021 The chip shortage will decrease and prices will stabilize. Pessimists predicted further growth of 10–15% due to inflation and possible new sanctions.

The reality turned out to be closer to the second scenario:

• 📈 2021: Prices continued to rise, but the pace slowed to 5–10% per year. The chip shortage persisted, but became less critical.
• 🔄 2022: The situation got worse sanctions and departure of many foreign brands from the Russian market. Prices for the remaining models on sale have increased by another 20–30%.
• 🚗 Alternatives: Many buyers have switched to Chinese brands (Changan, Geely, Haval), who did not leave the market and offered competitive prices.

If you are planning to buy a car in the coming years, experts recommend:

1. Consider buying a used car with mileage up to 80,000 km - this will save money 20–30% compared to a new car.
2. Follow dealer shares — many showrooms offer discounts on models from previous years to free up warehouses.
3. Explore Chinese brands - they are not only cheaper, but also often equipped better than their European counterparts.

7. Tips for buyers: how to save money on buying a car in 2020–2022

If you find yourself in a situation where you can’t put off buying a car, but you don’t want to overpay, use these tips:

1. Buy a car at the end of the year.

Dealers often offer discounts on current year models to make room for new ones. The difference can reach 5–10% from the cost.

2. Consider a trade-in.

Many dealerships are willing to give an additional discount if you trade in your old car to buy a new one. Sometimes this is more profitable than selling the car yourself.

3. Look for cars with mileage up to 3 years.

Such cars have already undergone the most severe depreciation (usually they lose 30–40% of cost for the first 3 years), but are still under warranty.

4. Apply for a loan with government support.

In 2020–2021, preferential car loan programs were in effect at a rate from 6.5% per annum (for example, First car or Family car).

5. Check the car's history.

Due to rising prices, many interrupted, credit or stolen cars Before purchasing, be sure to check the car through traffic police, Autocode or CarVertical.

FAQ: Frequently asked questions about car price increases in 2020

Why have new cars become more expensive than used cars?

New cars have risen in price due to rising costs (shortage of chips, weakening of the ruble, increased taxes), and prices on the secondary market have risen due to increased demand. Many buyers who couldn't afford a new car switched to used ones, creating shortages and driving up prices.

When will car prices start falling?

Experts predicted market stabilization by 2023–2026, but due to sanctions and the departure of foreign brands in 2022, the situation has become more complicated. Now (2026) prices for new foreign cars remain high, and on the used market there is a gradual decline by 5–10% for some models.

Is it worth buying a car on credit in 2020–2022?

Credit is beneficial if you can use government programs (rate from 6.5%). However, take into account the risks: if the ruble weakens, payments on foreign currency loans will increase. An alternative is a loan in rubles with a fixed rate or buying a used car without borrowed funds.

Which car brands have risen in price the least in 2020?

The prices for Russian and Chinese brands:

• Lada - price increase by 10–15% (due to high localization).
• Geely, Changan, Haval - growth by 15–20% (no dependence on European supplies).
• Renault and Nissan (assembled in Russia) - price increase by 18–25%.

Is it possible to return or exchange a car if its price has increased after purchase?

No, the law does not provide for the return of the car due to rising prices in the market. An exception is if hidden defects are found in the car (within 15 days after legal purchase On consumer protection). In other cases, cancellation of the transaction is possible only by agreement with the dealer.