What is happening to the car market in: a complete analysis of the situation for buyers and owners

The last two years have become a real test for the car market - both for manufacturers and buyers. Prices for new and used cars are breaking records, waiting times for orders stretch for months, and the assortment on the secondary market has changed dramatically. What's happening to the car market today? Why did even budget models become inaccessible to the middle class, and why did some brands leave Russia altogether?

In this article we will analyze the key trends of 2026: from changes in logistics and sanctions pressure up to new customer preferences and prospects for electric vehicles. You will find out whether it is worth buying a car right now, which models have increased in price more than others, and how not to make a mistake when choosing between a new and used car. And also - exclusive data on which brands may fall in price by the end of the year and why.

1. Why do car prices continue to rise in 2026?

The main question that concerns all potential buyers: when will prices finally stop rising? Unfortunately, a decline should not be expected in 2026. According to Association of European Businesses (AEB), the average cost of a new car in Russia increased by 28% from the beginning of 2023 — and this does not take into account the premium segment, where the increase reaches 40%. Main reasons:

• 🔹 Shortage of components - despite the launch of “parallel import”, many spare parts are still delivered with delays, which increases the cost of assembly.
• 🔹 Exchange rate fluctuations — the weakening of the ruble in the spring of 2026 added 10-15% to prices for foreign cars, even those assembled in Russia.
• 🔹 Logistics costs — delivery of cars from China, India and Turkey is more expensive than from Europe (for example, Changan and Geely raised prices by 8-12% just because of rising transportation costs).
• 🔹 Tax maneuver — from 2026, excise taxes on cars with engines larger than 1.8 liters have been increased, which automatically raised prices for crossovers and SUVs.

Particularly expensive Chinese brands, which a year ago were positioned as an “affordable alternative”. For example, Haval Jolion in the basic configuration it cost 1.8 million rubles in 2022, and today its minimum price is 2.4 million. At the same time, the demand for Chinese cars is not falling: according to Autostat, their share of the Russian market increased from 12% to 38% in two years.

⚠️ Attention: If you are planning a purchase on credit, please note that car loan rates have increased to 14-18% per annum (versus 9-12% in 2021). At the same time, banks have tightened the requirements for borrowers - now to approve a loan in an amount over 2 million rubles, a certificate of income for 6 months may be required (previously 3 months was enough).

2. Which cars have risen in price the most: anti-rating 2026

Not all models increase in price at the same rate. We analyzed the data AEB and Autostat and compiled a list of cars that have risen in price more than the market. Anti-rating leaders:

Model	Price increase (2023 vs 2026)	Average price in 2026 (RUB)	Main reason for growth
Toyota RAV4	+42%	3 850 000	Shortage of hybrid versions, high demand
Kia Sportage	+38%	3 200 000	Leaving the official dealer, switching to parallel imports
Lada Vesta NG	+30%	1 650 000	Increase in cost due to localization of components
Hyundai Tucson	+35%	3 500 000	Reduction in supplies from Korea, reorientation to China
Volkswagen Tiguan	+33%	4 100 000	Complete withdrawal of the brand from the market, leftovers at inflated prices

I wonder what Russian brands (like Lada and Moskvich) prices for foreign cars have increased less - by an average of 20-25%. This is due to government support and subsidies for local production. However, even here there are nuances: for example, Moskvich 3 (refaced JAC JS4) costs almost as much Skoda Karoq 2021 model, but in terms of reliability it is inferior to the Czech crossover.

If you are looking for a car “on a budget”, pay attention to models that have risen in price less than the market:

• 🚗 Renault Duster (+18%) - due to the localization of production in Moscow.
• 🚗 Geely Coolray (+20%) - stable supplies from China.
• 🚗 Lada Granta (+15%) - the most affordable new car in Russia (from 950 thousand rubles).

3. Secondary market: why have used cars become more expensive than new ones?

The paradox of 2026: prices on the secondary market have increased even more than for new cars. According to Avito Auto, the average cost of a used car in Russia exceeded 1.5 million rubles - this is 35% more than in 2022. In some segments (for example, crossovers up to 5 years old), the difference between a new and used car is only 10-15%.

Main reasons:

• 🔄 Supply reduction — many owners do not sell their cars, expecting prices to continue to rise.
• 🔄 "Recycling effect" — some old cars (especially foreign cars from the 2000s) are written off due to problems with spare parts.
• 🔄 Demand for “sanction-resistant” models - machines with simple engines (for example, Toyota Corolla E150 or Honda CR-V RD1) sell out instantly.
• 🔄 Dealer manipulation — some dealerships buy used cars at inflated prices, and then sell them as “certified used” with a 20-30% markup.

The most popular models in the secondary market in 2026:

• 🏆 Toyota Camry XV50 (2017-2020) - prices increased by 40% over the year.
• 🏆 Skoda Octavia A7 (2016-2019) - popular because of the reliability and availability of spare parts.
• 🏆 Hyundai Creta (2016-2020) - demand exceeds supply by 3 times.
• 🏆 Lada 4x4 (Niva) (any years) is the only body-on-frame SUV available.

⚠️ Attention: When purchasing a used foreign car, be sure to check the history through Traffic police → Vehicle check and services like Autocode or CarVertical. In 2026, cases of “broken” VIN numbers on cars from Europe (especially Volkswagen and Renault), which were previously listed as scrap.

4. Electric cars in Russia: why are there still few of them and is it worth buying?

Despite the global trend towards electrification, in Russia the share of electric vehicles on the market does not exceed 0.5%. In 2026, only about 3 thousand new ones were sold EV (according to Autostat), while in Europe this figure is in the hundreds of thousands. Main problems:

• ⚡ Prices - even the cheapest electric car (Geely Geometry E) costs from 2.8 million rubles, which is comparable to premium gasoline crossovers.
• ⚡ Infrastructure - in Russia there are only about 1.5 thousand charging stations (for comparison: in Norway - 20 thousand with a smaller territory).
• ⚡ Climate — in cold weather (-20°C and below), the actual range of an electric vehicle is reduced by 30-40%.
• ⚡ Service — battery repair costs 20-30% of the cost of the car, and qualified technicians EV very little.

However, there are also advantages. For example, owners of electric vehicles in Moscow and St. Petersburg save on:

• 💰 Fuel — charging costs 3-5 times less than gasoline (with a mileage of 20 thousand km per year, the savings will be 80-120 thousand rubles).
• 💰 Taxes — transport tax on EV 2-3 times lower.
• 💰 Service — there is no need to change oil, spark plugs or timing belts.

If you still decide to buy an electric car, consider these models:

Model	Power reserve (WLTP)	Price (2026)	Pros	Cons
Geely Geometry E	410 km	2 800 000	The cheapest, 8 year warranty on battery	Small ground clearance, weak stove
Volkswagen ID.4	520 km	4 500 000	Spacious, high quality build	Long charging (up to 80% - 30 min)
Tesla Model Y	455 km	5 200 000	Supercharge, autopilot	Expensive repairs, software problems

Hidden costs of an electric car

In addition to the price of the car itself, the owner EV you will have to spend money on:

1. Installation of a home charging station (from 50 thousand rubles).

2. Insurance (CASCO for electric cars is 20-30% more expensive due to the high cost of the battery).

3. Winter tires (due to the weight of the car, they wear out faster).

4. Suspension repair (weight EV 20-30% higher than gasoline analogues, which accelerates the wear of shock absorbers).

5. Parallel imports: how has it changed the market and is it worth buying such cars?

From 2022 parallel import has become the main channel for the supply of foreign cars to Russia. According to FCS, up to 70% of new cars are imported through it. But what does this mean for the buyer?

Advantages of parallel import:

• ✅ Availability of models that have officially left the market (Volkswagen, Skoda, Toyota).
• ✅ Prices are lower than those of “gray” dealers (by 10-15%).
• ✅ Possibility of ordering rare configurations.

Disadvantages and risks:

• ❌ No official guarantee — even if the dealer promises a “3-year warranty,” it is valid only in its service centers.
• ❌ Software problems — many cars come with “European” firmware, where they do not work Yandex.Navigator, GLONASS and Russian-language voice control.
• ❌ Long repair times — spare parts are ordered for a specific car, sometimes you have to wait for months.
• ❌ The risk of "gray" schemes — some dealers sell cars with fake PTS or unformed customs declarations.

How to minimize risks when purchasing parallel imports?

Check the customs declaration on the website customs.gov.ru

Make sure the VIN number on the vehicle title matches the number on the car

Ask the dealer to provide a certificate of conformity (without it the car will not pass inspection)

Check if there is a service center in your city that services this brand

Compare the price with similar offers (a difference of more than 10% is a reason to be wary) -->

If you decide to parallel import, give preference to models with a simple design and common engines. For example:

• 🚘 Toyota Corolla (1.6 or 1.8 l) - spare parts are everywhere.
• 🚘 Hyundai Elantra (2.0 l) - reliable engine, low maintenance costs.
• 🚘 Skoda Octavia (1.6 MPI) - simple mechanics, cheap maintenance.

6. Forecasts for 2026: what can the car market expect?

Experts AEB and PwC give mixed forecasts for 2026. On the one hand, prices for new cars are expected to stabilize (growth of no more than 5-7%), but on the other hand, the secondary market may face supply collapse due to:

• 📉 Expiration of tenure — many buyers in 2020-2021 will start selling cars, which will increase supply.
• 📉 Tightening recycling rules — from 2026, a new environmental tax will be introduced, which will make maintaining old cars (especially diesel ones) unprofitable.
• 📉 Growing popularity of carsharing — Young people are increasingly abandoning personal cars in favor of renting.

As for new cars, experts expect:

• 📈 Growing share of Chinese brands up to 50% of the market (today - 38%).
• 📈 The emergence of new Russian models - for example, Moskvich 5 (electric crossover) and updated Lada Largus.
• 📈 Reduction in prices for hybrids - due to state subsidies and the launch of their production in Russia (for example, Hyundai Solar plans to localize the hybrid Creta).
• 📉 Falling demand for diesel cars - due to new environmental standards and rising prices for diesel fuel.

If you're planning a purchase in 2026, pay attention to these trends:

• 🔮 Crossovers will remain sales leaders, but their share will decrease from 50% to 45% due to rising prices.
• 🔮 Sedans will come back into fashion - due to cheapness and practicality (for example, a new Geely Emgrand).
• 🔮 Car subscriptions will become an alternative to loans - some dealers are already testing “all-inclusive” models (insurance, maintenance, tires).

7. Expert advice: how to buy a car in 2026 and not make a mistake?

In an unstable market, even experienced car owners risk overpaying or buying a problem car. We have collected recommendations from experts Autostat and AEBthat will help you save:

If you are buying a new car:

• 💡 Do not take out a loan for longer than 3 years - the rates are high, but the car may become cheaper.
• 💡 Compare prices in different regions - for example, in Siberia and the Far East, some models are 5-10% cheaper.
• 💡 Pay attention to the configuration — often the difference between the basic and medium versions is only 100-150 thousand rubles, but includes important options (for example, ESP or climate control).

If you are buying a used car:

• 🔧 Check your history through the traffic police and Autocode - especially if the car is older than 10 years.
• 🔧 Beware of "European" diesels - repair TDCI or CRDi motors cost 300-500 thousand rubles.
• 🔧 Test drive is required — even if the car is “like new,” check the operation of the gearbox, suspension and electronics.

If you take out a loan:

• 💳 Take out insurance only from trusted companies — in 2026, cases of CASCO fraud have become more frequent (for example, refusal of payment due to “VIN mismatch”).
• 💳 Calculate the total cost of the loan — sometimes it’s more profitable to lease a car (especially for individual entrepreneurs).
• 💳 Don't settle for "extras" — dealers often impose unnecessary options (for example, an “extended warranty” for 100 thousand rubles).

⚠️ Attention: If you are buying a car for taxi or car sharing, avoid models with robotic boxes (for example, DSG or Powershift). Their service life in urban use rarely exceeds 150 thousand km, and repairs cost 200-300 thousand rubles.

FAQ: Answers to frequently asked questions about the car market

Should you buy a car now or is it better to wait until 2026?

If you urgently need a car, then there is no point in waiting - prices in 2026, if they fall, will be only slightly (by 3-5%). Exception: if you are considering a used car from 2020-2022, discounts of up to 10% are possible by the end of 2026 due to the influx of offers from credit buyers.

What cars are best not to buy in 2026?

Experts recommend avoiding:

• 🚫 Diesel cars older than 2015 (problems with AdBlue and particulate filters).
• 🚫 Cars with CVTs, if the mileage is more than 100 thousand km (risk of expensive repairs).
• 🚫 Foreign cars that have officially left the market (Volkswagen, Skoda, Toyota), if they have not been adapted for Russia (there may be problems with the software and warranty).

How to check if a car is in pledge or seized?

Use official services:

• 🔍 Traffic police → Vehicle check (checks arrests and restrictions).
• 🔍 FNP → Register of pledges (checks collateral obligations).
• 🔍 Autocode or CarVertical (paid reports with accident history and mileage).

If the seller refuses to provide the VIN or title for verification, this is a reason to refuse the deal.

What alternatives are there to buying a car in 2026?

If you rarely need a car, consider:

• 🚗 Car sharing (for example, Delimobil or BelkaCar) - beneficial if you drive less than 10 thousand km per year.
• 🚗 Lease with option to buy — some dealers offer schemes where part of the rental payment goes towards a future purchase.
• 🚗 Car subscription (for example, Skyeng Auto) - fixed monthly fee, including insurance and maintenance.

Is it possible to transport a car from abroad on your own?

Technically yes, but it comes with risks:

• 🛂 You need to fill out a customs declaration and pay duties (from 20% of the cost).
• 🛂 The machine must comply with Russian standards (for example, have GLONASS and Russian-language instrument panel).
• 🛂 There is a risk that the car will not pass certification (especially if it is older than 5 years).

If you still decide to drive the car yourself, it is better to choose models that were officially sold in Russia (for example, Toyota or Hyundai).